Europe’s chip push won’t end US cloud reliance

Europe can spend billions on new semiconductor fabs and still fall short of real tech sovereignty, according to Forrester, which says the continent will remain deeply dependent on US cloud providers and software for years.

In its first Global Sovereignty Forecast, the analyst firm says the race for technological independence already has two dominant players: China and the United States. Forrester’s Tech Sovereignty Index measures areas including AI investment, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, software, datacenter capacity, and technical talent. On that basis, China scores 82 percent and the US 79 percent.

Europe trails far behind, and Forrester does not expect much movement by 2030. Its forecast shows:

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• Germany and Spain rising from 34 percent to 36 percent
• France from 33 percent to 35 percent
• The UK from 30 percent to 32 percent
• Italy from 27 percent to 29 percent

Europe’s chip gains still leave major gaps

Semiconductors are one of the few areas where Forrester sees meaningful progress. Governments are pouring money into domestic production, and the firm expects chip manufacturing scores to improve sharply in several countries by 2030.

But more fabs do not equal independence. Forrester says Europe designs only about 1 percent of the world’s chips and has no local equivalent to Nvidia or Qualcomm. The broader stack is also exposed: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud control roughly 65 percent of the European cloud market, while high energy costs and planning limits continue to slow datacenter expansion.

The European Chips Act is also unlikely to hit Brussels' target. While the EU wants to produce 20 percent of the world’s semiconductors by 2030, Forrester expects Europe to reach only 11.3 percent as other regions expand too.

Forrester rejects “sovereign cloud” claims

Forrester is equally skeptical of the hyperscalers' sovereign cloud offerings in Europe. AWS, Microsoft, and Google have introduced regional services with separate governance and operational controls, but the firm argues they are still subsidiaries of US companies. The infrastructure may be hosted in Europe, yet ownership remains elsewhere.

Rather than pursuing full self-sufficiency, Forrester says countries should focus on managing unavoidable dependencies through alliances, open technologies, and selective investment.

“Ongoing geopolitical volatility, AI competition, and semiconductor supply chain risks have put tech sovereignty firmly in the spotlight. Today, tech sovereignty is concentrated in the hands of a few global leaders, creating an uneven competitive advantage for some countries. To compete in the AI era, nations must understand their strategic dependencies and build durable partnerships that safeguard their data, infrastructure, and long-term autonomy.”

That leaves Europe with a tougher problem than building fabs: creating a full technology stack that does not ultimately answer to headquarters in another country.