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Mobility buildout could double by 2060 — emissions needn’t
A new study says global mobility infrastructure could double by 2060, but smarter planning and cleaner materials could cut emissions by up to 63%.
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Global mobility infrastructure could double by 2060, and in some scenarios the world’s mobility networks could even triple in size as countries expand access to transport. According to a new study in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, that growth would sharply raise demand for concrete, steel, and asphalt—and lock in major carbon emissions unless governments change how they build.
Researchers from BOKU University and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) found those emissions are far from inevitable. Their analysis suggests that shaping future travel demand, building less material-intensive infrastructure, and cleaning up industrial production could cut embodied emissions by up to 63% while still meeting transport needs.
Today, global mobility infrastructure is dominated by roads and contains about 350 billion tons of materials, the study says. It also reflects stark inequalities between wealthier, lower-density regions and poorer, more densely populated ones. Without policy and planning changes, total material stocks in global mobility infrastructure could double by 2060, adding pressure on land use and ecosystems.
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The researchers say the biggest emissions cuts come from slowing growth in mobility demand in the first place. That means denser, mixed-use cities, shorter distances to essential services, and much better public transportation. Additional reductions would come from cleaner material production, more recycling, and decarbonizing the energy used by industry.
“Compact, transit-oriented, and walking- and cycling-friendly cities can deliver access to mobility with far less material and carbon than car-centric sprawl. Choices made now in rapidly urbanizing regions will lock in mobility patterns for decades due to the long service lives of infrastructure.”
Co-author Volker Krey, who leads the Integrated Assessment and Climate Change Research Group at IIASA, said the study shows climate goals and expanding mobility access do not have to clash if planning and industrial policy move together.
“Our analysis shows that combining demand-side measures such as compact urban development and reduced unnecessary travel with cleaner industrial production and greater material circularity offers the greatest potential to reduce emissions while ensuring adequate mobility infrastructure for everyone.”
The paper combines BOKU’s high-resolution global infrastructure mapping with IIASA’s MESSAGEix integrated assessment framework. Its conclusion is blunt: the fastest and fairest path is to curb unnecessary travel demand, prioritize high-capacity public transport and active mobility, avoid road expansion that fuels sprawl, and decarbonize the materials used to build what comes next.
The study is “Material and carbon implications of future mobility infrastructure expansion around the world” by André Baumgart et al, published in 2026 in the Journal of Industrial Ecology. DOI: 10.1007/s44498-026-00132-x
Frontier Editor
Dan is our resident futurist, covering electric mobility, space exploration, and the smart home. He's interested in atoms just as much as bits. Whether it's a new battery chemistry, a reusable rocket, or a protocol that finally makes IoT devices talk to each other, Dan breaks down the engineering that pushes humanity forward.
via TechXplore
